Cell Reports Sustainability (Apr 2024)
Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles
Abstract
Summary: Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow. Science for society: Communities and businesses nationwide have set ambitious goals to combat climate change by generating 100% of their electricity from carbon-free or renewable energy sources. Until now, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the possible pathways to achieve these goals on the scale needed to power the largest US cities. Here, we present findings from the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100), a thorough and wide-reaching assessment of the factors needed to make a fully renewable utility system operate reliably and deliver adequate electricity to more than 4 million residents. Our analysis uses detailed models of the city’s power grid to examine not just renewable resource options and technical solutions related to generation, transmission, and distribution systems but also the balance of supply and demand, variability and reliability, and affordability and viability—all through the lens of changing demographics and climate conditions.
