Trend Analysis and Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in China from 2009 to 2021

Abstract

Background With the prevalence of unhealthy lifestyles and the accelerated trend of population aging, the mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases remains high in China. A timely understanding of the current and future trends of cardiovascular disease mortality in China, as well as exploring potential influencing factors and solutions, can provide a reference for formulating cardiovascular disease prevention and control measures. Objective To analyze the trend of cardiovascular disease mortality in China from 2009 to 2021 and predict the future trends from 2022 to 2030. Methods Cardiovascular disease mortality data were selected and analyzed based on gender, urban-rural areas, regions, and age groups from the "China Death Surveillance Data Set (2009-2021) " published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to analyze the changing trends. Additionally, a GM (1, 1) model was established using R (4.3.1) software to predict the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in China from 2022 to 2030. Results From 2009 to 2021, the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in China increased from 235.83/100 000 in 2009 to 353.31/100 000 in 2021, with the AAPC of 3.3% (95%CI=2.8% to 3.8%, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 281.82/100 000 in 2009 to 221.24/100 000 in 2021, with the AAPC of -1.9% (95%CI=-2.6% to -1.2%, P<0.001). During this period, the standardized mortality rate for cardiovascular diseases in China showed a decreasing trend across different genders (AAPC for males=-2.0%, AAPC for females=-2.1%; P<0.05), urban and rural areas (AAPC for urban=-1.3%, AAPC for rural=-2.4%; P<0.05), and regions (AAPC for eastern region=-2.1%, AAPC for central region=-2.2%, AAPC for western region=-1.0%; P<0.05). Notably, the mortality rate decline was greater in females than males, in rural areas than urban areas, and the central region than the eastern and western regions. The results of the GM (1, 1) model showed that the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in China will continue to rise to 461.57/100 000 from 2022 to 2030. Conclusion From 2009 to 2021, the overall crude mortality rate of cardiovascular disease in China has shown a continuous upward trend, while the overall standardized mortality rate has shown a downward trend. The burden of cardiovascular disease mortality in China still faces severe challenges. The GM (1, 1) model predicts a continuous increase in the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in China from 2022 to 2030. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate and implement scientifically effective measures for the prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases, with a focus on male, elderly and rural residents.

Keywords

• cardiovascular diseases|mortality|crude mortality rate|age-standardized mortality rate|joinpoint regression model|gm (1, 1) model|prediction