VALUE OF A COMBINATION OF VARIOUS FACTORS IN PREDICTING THE ONSET OF CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE IN OVERWEIGHT AND OBESE MALE PATIENTS WITH GOUT

Abstract

Objective To investigate the influencing factors for the onset of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in overweight and obese male patients with gout, and to establish a predictive model for the onset of CKD. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 653 overweight and obese male patients with gout who attended The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from June 2014 to August 2020, and they were divided into CKD group and non-CKD group according to Kidney Disease Outcome Quality Initiative formulated by the National Kidney Foundation. Basic clinical data were compared between the two groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate independent predictive factors for the onset of CKD, and a clinical predictive model was established. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to calculate the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and different indicators were compared in terms of their value in predicting the onset of CKD. Results Compared with the non-CKD group, the CKD group had a significantly higher age, a significantly longer course of gout, and significantly higher urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and levels of fasting blood glucose and serum creatinine (t=-8.934--2.397,P<0.05), as well as significantly lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and serum levels of free triiodothyronine and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) (t=2.352-13.057,P<0.05). The logistic regression analysis showed that low serum TSH, old age, and a long course of gout were independently associated with the risk of CKD in overweight and obese male patients with gout (P<0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the combination of serum TSH, age, and course of gout disease had the largest AUC of 0.725 (95%CI=0.689-0.759) in predicting the onset of CKD, with a sensitivity of 57.5% and a specificity of 76.3%. Conclusion In overweight and obese male patients with gout, low serum TSH, old age, and a long course of gout are independently associated with the risk of CKD, and the combination of these three indicators has a high value in predicting the onset of CKD.

Keywords

• gout|renal insufficiency, chronic|thyrotropin|age of onset|risk factors|logistic models|diagnosis