How Many Secondary School Students and Leavers Will there Be in the Next 20 Years?

Abstract

The article analyzes the impact of the low number of births at the turn of the millennium in the Czech Republic on the number of students and leavers of secondary schools fi nished by the school leaving exam. The drop in births mentioned followed in lower number of students admitted to secondary schools at present time. Theanalysis based on available data until 2011 is supplemented by the estimate of the development in next two decades based on authors’ demographic projection of the population of the Czech Republic (see Fiala, Langhamrová, Průša, 2011). In this decade we can expect decline in the annual numbers of leavers (taking school leaving exam) by almost 25% and a return to present values is not expected until the late twenties. The annual number of leavers taking school leaving exam will thus be in three years lower than the present annualnumbers or students registered for daytime tertiary education courses. The universities and technical colleges should probably have to reduce the number of students.

Keywords

• Age structure
• secondary school
• school leaving exam
• student
• school leaver
• population projection