Future Scenarios of Iranian Banks in the Face of Fintech

Abstract

Objective: Bank-fintech collaboration scenario has become one of the new topics in the study of innovation and financial technology businesses. Yet, there has been no research into Iranian Banks collaboration scenarios as traditional financial institutions in the face of the rapid growth of fintechs that is the purpose of this research. Methods: To develop scenarios, mixed-method research is employed. In this regard, drivers, wildcards, and weak signals of Iranian bank-fintech collaboration were listed by thematic analysis of 15 interviews of fintech ecosystem experts. Then with 33 scholars and practitioners’ participation, factors affecting collaboration were listed, successively confirmed with a one-sample t-test, and prioritized with fuzzy Topsis. Furthermore, future scenarios were developed based on Global Business Network, by distributing the questionnaire among 144 senior bank managers from 16 Iranian banks. Results: Legal development of fintech types and establishment of e-KYC are recognized as two key uncertainties, and subsequently the four scenarios were described: identity scenario, sine scenario, floor and ceiling scenario, and logarithm scenario. Then, private plugin services and Public API Banking Providers were proposed as robust banks’ strategies in collaboration with fintechs. Conclusion: To adopt a suitable scenario and realize the robust strategies, strategic themes were identified and categorized into three areas: national governance, partnership network, and technology management. Eventually, with the expert interview, the results were confirmed.

Keywords

• collaboration
• innovation
• bank
• fintech
• scenario analysis