Validation of a simplified score for predicting latent rheumatic heart disease progression using a prospective cohort of Brazilian schoolchildren
Craig Sable,
Bruno Ramos Nascimento,
Bárbara Martins Bechtlufft,
Clara Leal Fraga,
Márcia Melo Barbosa,
Susana Drumond Reis,
Adriana Costa Diamantino,
Zilda Maria Alves Meira,
Sandra Regina Tolentino Castilho,
Nayana Flamini Arantes,
Kaciane Krauss Oliveira,
José Luiz Padilha Silva,
Breno De Filippo Rezende,
Waydder Antônio Aurélio Costa,
Mariana Duarte Mata,
Augusto Ferreira Pereira,
Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro,
Andrea Zawacki Beaton,
Maria Carmo Pereira Nunes
Affiliations
Craig Sable
Bruno Ramos Nascimento
Bárbara Martins Bechtlufft
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Clara Leal Fraga
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Márcia Melo Barbosa
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Susana Drumond Reis
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Adriana Costa Diamantino
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Zilda Maria Alves Meira
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Sandra Regina Tolentino Castilho
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Nayana Flamini Arantes
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Kaciane Krauss Oliveira
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
José Luiz Padilha Silva
Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, PR, Brazil
Breno De Filippo Rezende
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Waydder Antônio Aurélio Costa
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Mariana Duarte Mata
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Augusto Ferreira Pereira
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Andrea Zawacki Beaton
The Heart Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA
Maria Carmo Pereira Nunes
Serviço de Cardiologia e Cirurgia Cardiovascular e Centro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Objectives Echocardiographic (echo) screening is an important tool to estimate rheumatic heart disease (RHD) prevalence, but the natural history of screen-detected RHD remains unclear. The PROVAR+ (Programa de RastreamentO da VAlvopatia Reumática) study, which uses non-experts, telemedicine and portable echo, pioneered RHD screening in Brazil. We aimed to assess the mid-term evolution of Brazilian schoolchildren (5–18 years) with echocardiography-detected subclinical RHD and to assess the performance of a simplified score consisting of five components of the World Heart Federation criteria, as a predictor of unfavourable echo outcomes.Setting Public schools of underserved areas and private schools in Minas Gerais, southeast Brazil.Participants A total of 197 patients (170 borderline and 27 definite RHD) with follow-up of 29±9 months were included. Median age was 14 (12–16) years, and 130 (66%) were woman. Only four patients in the definite group were regularly receiving penicillin.Primary and secondary outcome measures Unfavourable outcome was based on the 2-year follow-up echo, defined as worsening diagnostic category, remaining with mild definite RHD or development/worsening of valve regurgitation/stenosis.Results Among patients with borderline RHD, 29 (17.1%) progressed to definite, 49 (28.8%) remained stable, 86 (50.6%) regressed to normal and 6 (3.5%) were reclassified as other heart diseases. Among those with definite RHD, 13 (48.1%) remained in the category, while 5 (18.5%) regressed to borderline, 5 (18.5%) regressed to normal and 4 (14.8%) were reclassified as other heart diseases. The simplified echo score was a significant predictor of RHD unfavourable outcome (HR 1.197, 95% CI 1.098 to 1.305, p<0.001).Conclusion The simple risk score provided an accurate prediction of RHD status at 2-year follow-up, showing a good performance in Brazilian schoolchildren, with a potential value for risk stratification and monitoring of echocardiography-detected RHD.
