Analysis of the Flow of Offenders to the Metropolitan Region of Chile

Abstract

This study, based on data from 2015 to 2019 on the movement of offenders to the Metropolitan Region of Chile, uses Poisson and Negative Binomial models to analyze the flow of offenders from other Chilean regions. It confirms that factors such as gender, educational level, location of crime, and type of crime significantly motivate displacement. The profile of the typical offender is an educated man who commits crimes against property on public roads, coming mainly from neighboring and populated regions. These findings have implications for crime prevention, suggesting that strategies to prevent crime should take this into account. Future research at the commune level is proposed for a more detailed understanding of offender displacement patterns and to inform local crime-prevention strategies.

Keywords

• criminal mobility
• journey to crime
• Poisson regression
• Negative Binomial regression