Machine learning for the prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is strongly associated with poor prognosis. We aimed to build a machine learning (ML)-based clinical model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with SA-AKI. Methods Six ML algorithms were included to perform model fitting. Feature selection was based on the feature importance evaluated by the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the prediction model. Calibration curve and Brier score were employed to assess the calibrated ability. Our ML-based prediction models were validated both internally and externally. Results A total of 12,750 patients with SA-AKI and 55 features were included to build the prediction models. We identified the top 10 predictors including age, ICU stay and GCS score based on the feature importance. Among the six ML algorithms, the CatBoost showed the best prediction performance with an AUROC of 0.813 and Brier score of 0.119. In the external validation set, the predictive value remained favorable (AUROC = 0.784). Conclusion In this study, we developed and validated a ML-based prediction model based on 10 commonly used clinical features which could accurately and early identify the individuals at high-risk of long-term mortality in patients with SA-AKI.

Keywords

• Sepsis
• Acute kidney injury
• Machine learning
• Prediction model
• Prognosis