A macroeconometric panel data analysis of the shaping factors of labour emigration within the European Union

Abstract

The research aims to identify and analyse the determinants and shaping factors of labour emigration within the European Union. The analysis is based on developing double-log macroeconometric models that combine cross-section and time series in a panel structure, by using a set of indicators specific for the emigration process, as well as for the economic activity, labour market and education, as main explanatory variables. The results show that high unemployment reduces the emigrant stock, mainly due to the loss of associated income and to the reduction of the migrants’ capacity to move and establish into another country. At the same time, we identified a positive selection of emigrants at destination according to their educational level, while an increase in education in the source country downsizes the stock of emigrants mainly due to an improvement in employment perspectives.

Keywords

• international migration
• labour market
• unemployment
• education
• macroeconometric modelling