NDVI as a potential tool for forecasting changes in geographical range of sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus L.)

Abstract

Abstract Determining the natural range of Acer pseudoplatanus and the future directions of its spread is not clear. Modern technological achievements, including tools related to remote sensing, provide new opportunities to assess the degree of spread and adaptation of species to a changing climate. The aim of the work was to demonstrate the possibility of using NDVI to assess the habitat conditions of sycamore in Poland and the possibility of its natural expansion. The data analysis was divided into 2 parts. The first covered the characteristics of all sycamore stands occurring in Poland. In the second part, the analysis of sycamore stands using NDVI was made. The results of the study show that the highest average NDVI values are found in sycamore stands in the northern part of Poland, which has so far been considered less favorable for sycamore. This may suggest the potential for an increase in the share of sycamore towards the north. The results also confirm the forecasts given in the literature regarding the spread of sycamore towards Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The results also point to Denmark and the western part of the British Isles as potentially favorable habitats for sycamore.