Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences (May 2024)
Meteorological Drought Analysis Using Multiple Indices for Selected Stations in Iraq
Abstract
This study aims to assess the performance of three drought indices for drought monitoring to study the characteristics of meteorological drought in Iraq, which are the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), the China-Z Index (CZI), and the Modified China-Z Index (MCZI) on 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month timescales, using monthly precipitation data from 1980 to 2021. These indices were used to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of droughts using the rainfall data collected from five meteorological stations scattered across the four climatic zones as classified by Köppen in Iraq. According to the study, the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) values among the indices increase with increasing time scale and give similar drought characteristics at the 9-month and 12-month time scales. SPI generally indicated the drought event earlier and with more severe characteristics than the other indices. MCZI showed wetness earlier than the other two indices, and it also described the drought categories similarly to SPI and CZI, especially in the northern regions of Iraq, but it was less official in describing it as we headed down to the south. While CZI described the drought as having less severity than SPI, it frequently gives the same classifications of drought as SPI. CZI could be used as a good meteorological drought monitor, depending on the month, the length of the drought duration, and the climatic conditions of the region. It might be an alternative to the SPI, which needs long rainfall records and has a complicated structure. SPI and CZI can be considered good indices for describing drought in all regions of Iraq. The result shows that 1980, 1993, 1995, and 2019 were the most wet years; 2007–2010 was the most severe drought event; and Iraq's climate was normal to moderate drought during the studied period for all considered stations.
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