Crime Risk Analysis of Tangible Cultural Heritage in China from a Spatial Perspective

Abstract

Tangible cultural heritage is vulnerable to various risks, particularly those stemming from criminal activity. Through analyzing the distribution and flow of crime risks from a spatial perspective based on quantitative methods, risks can be better managed to contribute to the protection of cultural heritage. This paper explores and summarizes the spatial characteristics of crime risks from 2011 to 2019 in China. Firstly, the average nearest neighbor (ANN) and the Jenks Natural Breaks Classification method showed that the national key protected heritage sites (NPS) and crime risks exhibit clustering features in space, and most of the NPS were located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Secondly, the economy has no impact on crime risks in the spatial statistical analysis. However, the population density, distribution of NPS, and tourism development influenced specific types of crime risks. Finally, Global Moran’s I was used to examine the strong sensitivity between crime risks and cultural relics protection policies. The quantitative results of this study can be applied to improve strategies for crime risk prevention and the effectiveness of heritage security policy formulation.

Keywords

• tangible cultural heritage
• crime risk analysis
• spatial statistics
• Global Moran’s I
• risk prevention