China’s Wealth Capital Stock Mapping via Machine Learning Methods

Abstract

The frequent occurrence of extreme weather and the development of urbanization have led to the continuously worsening climate-related disaster losses. Socioeconomic exposure is crucial in disaster risk assessment. Social assets at risk mainly include the buildings, the machinery and the equipment, and the infrastructure. In this study, the wealth capital stock (WKS) was selected as an indicator for measuring social wealth. However, the existing WKS estimates have not been gridded accurately, thereby limiting further disaster assessment. Hence, the multisource remote sensing and the POI data were used to disaggregate the 2012 prefecture-level WKS data into 1000 m × 1000 m grids. Subsequently, ensemble models were built via the stacking method. The performance of the ensemble models was verified by evaluating and comparing the three base models with the stacking model. The stacking model attained more robust prediction results (RMSE = 0.34, R2 = 0.9025), and its prediction spatially presented a realistic asset distribution. The 1000 m × 1000 m WKS gridded data produced by this research offer a more reasonable and accurate socioeconomic exposure map compared with existing ones, thereby providing an important bibliography for disaster assessment. This study may also be adopted by the ensemble learning models in refining the spatialization of the socioeconomic data.

Keywords

• WKS
• economic exposure
• ensemble model
• random forest
• point-of-interest