Determination of Country-Specific Criteria Weights for Long-Term Energy Planning in Europe

Abstract

Energy strategies and decision-making studies rely heavily on a system of criteria and their weights of importance, typically determined through stakeholder involvement or surveys. However, the methodology presented in this study considers a reverse approach, as the importance weights are computed based on historical data of each European country’s prevailing decisions on pre-defined aspects. An in-house-developed model was applied to analyze data from the ENTSO-E database for the determination of optimal criteria weights with combination of a linear programming task and Monte Carlo simulations. Applying the new model, the importance weights of seven selected criteria could be calculated for all European countries. The Eastern European region demonstrated exceptional sensitivity towards investment costs, while countries relying heavily on renewable or nuclear energy sources, such as Denmark, Greece, Norway, Slovenia, Spain, and the United Kingdom, exhibited a dominant influence of environmental factors. Moreover, it was observed that the flexibility criterion aligned well with the installed generation capacities. However, the geopolitical factor and the risk of accidents criteria introduced nuances to the overall rating, indicating a somewhat reduced dependence on production data.

Keywords

• energy planning
• criteria weights
• MCDA
• historical database