Mathematical analysis of a MERS-Cov coronavirus model

Abstract

In this study, we have proposed a mathematical model to describe the dynamics of the spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome disease. The model consists of six-coupled ordinary differential equations. The existence of the corona-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points has been proved. The threshold condition for which the disease will die out or becomes permanent has been computed. That is the corona-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number is less than unity, and it is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) whenever the reproduction number is greater than unity. Moreover, we have proved that the endemic equilibrium point is GAS whenever the reproduction number is greater than unity. The results of the model analysis have been illustrated by numerical simulations.

Keywords

• mers-cov
• coronaviruses
• reproduction number
• equilibria
• stability
• 34d23
• 92b05
• 37n25
• 93d05