Наука Красноярья (Dec 2015)
EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF WHEAT GROWTH USING ELEMENTS OF MATHEMATICAL MODELLING IN ECONOMICS
Abstract
Selective breeding results, quality of seeds and other factors have a significant impact on the efficiency of crops. Mathematical Modelling in Economics is being used to determine the impact of factors on the value of performance indicators,The aim of the article is to research factors that influence the effective growth of wheat in Kyiv region.Approach and methodology of a research. A parameterization technique of regression equations was used in order to study the influence of factors on performance indicators of wheat growth. Parameters of linear regression were found by using of least square method.Results. Recommended quality coefficient of wheat seeds in Kyiv region was measured. There are three groups of regions created according to the quality coefficient value of wheat seeds. As the value of mentioned coefficient increases, the growth of wheat yields takes place. During the last three years, the regions of the groups with the highest coefficient have the highest level of profitability and incomes per a single group enterprise. The impact of factors on the level of profitability of wheat, the linear regression analysis (that is based on least square method) was used for more detailed analysis. A check of regression models conformity and authenticity criteria showed that the most credible is the model of 2013. In such a model the substantial impact on the level of profitability of wheat growth have production expenditures for 1 seeding hectare and the share of seed cost in the structure of production expenditures.Results application area. The results can be used by regional and district authorities of agricultural administration for planning and business decision making, connected to cultivation and realization of crop production. The results can be used by enterprises for the evaluation of economic results and identifying opportunities to increase production.
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