Assessment of glacial lake development and prospects of outburst susceptibility: Chamlang South Glacier, eastern Nepal Himalaya

Abstract

Chamlang South Tsho has been identified as one of the six high-priority glacial lakes in terms of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) danger in Nepal Himalaya, despite the fact that no detailed investigations of the lake had been hitherto undertaken. We conducted detailed mapping of the lake and its surroundings along with field surveys in October 2009 to determine the developmental history of Chamlang South Tsho and to assess its potential for GLOF. The lake expanded rapidly between 1964 (0.04 km2) and 2000 (0.86 km2) and has been stable ever since. Future lake expansion is improbable as its sides are confined by relatively stable landforms. The lake is 87-m deep with a water volume of approximately 34.9–35.6 × 106 m3. Hanging glaciers on the steep surrounding mountain slopes and prominent seepage water in the terminal moraine dam could be potential triggers for a future outburst flood. Additionally, the debris-covered dead-ice dam, which is higher than the lake water level, is narrow and low; therefore, it could be overtopped easily by surge waves. Furthermore, the pronounced difference in elevation between the lake and the base of the terminal moraine dam makes the lake susceptible for a large flood.