The applicability evaluation and drought validation of the WOFOST model for the simulation of winter wheat growth in Shandong Province, China
Dong Zhiqiang,
Jiang Mengyuan,
Xue Xiaoping,
Pan Zhihua,
Li Nan,
Zhao Hong,
Hou Yingyu
Affiliations
Dong Zhiqiang
Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China; Shandong Provincial Climate Center, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China; CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change (LACC/CMA-CAU), China
Jiang Mengyuan
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China
Xue Xiaoping
Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China; Shandong Provincial Climate Center, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China; CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change (LACC/CMA-CAU), China; Corresponding author.
Pan Zhihua
College of Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change (LACC/CMA-CAU), China
Li Nan
Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China; Shandong Provincial Climate Center, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China; CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change (LACC/CMA-CAU), China
Zhao Hong
Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China; Shandong Provincial Climate Center, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China; CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change (LACC/CMA-CAU), China
Hou Yingyu
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China; CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change (LACC/CMA-CAU), China
The yield of winter wheat in Shandong Province is of great significance for ensuring regional and national food security. To reduce the risk of production loss, the WOFOST model was used to simulate the winter wheat growth to obtain the quantitative and dynamic information. Based on the observational data, a moisture control experiment and the trial and error method, the applicability and drought simulation of the WOFOST model were evaluated for winter wheat growth. For the simulation of the seedling period, flowering period, and maturity period of winter wheat in Shandong Province, the R2 were 0.95, 0.69, and 0.68 respectively. The D-index were 0.99, 0.89, and 0.86 respectively. The mean absolute error (mAE) were 1.3, 4.3, and 4.1 respectively. And the nRMSE were 0.65%, 4.3%, and 3.2%, respectively. For the yield simulation, the R2, D-index, mean relative error (mRE), and nRMSE were 0.48, 0.82, 10.5% and 12.8%, respectively. For the yield simulation under drought stress, the R2, D-index, mRE, and nRMSE were 0.77, 0.93, 7.1%, and 7.4%, respectively. An evaluation index system was built through four different degrees of drought treatment between the jointing period and the flowering period. With the aggravation of drought, the growth indicators about the total above ground production (TAGP), maximum leaf area index (MAXLAI), total dry weight of leaves (TWLV), and total dry weight of stems (TWST) decreasing by 13.6–41.0%, 37.8–56.5%, 19.4–42.1%, and 20.3–51.2%, respectively. The results showed that this model could adequately simulate the formation process of yield under both normal and drought conditions.