A risk assessment method of the energy supply chain based on combination weights and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution

Abstract

Nowadays, the energy supply chain (ESC) with the coupling of multiple energy systems is able to promote the complementation between various energy types. However, due to a more complex structure, ESCs are facing more risks from the internal major links and external environment. Hence, an risk assessment method of the ESC based on combination weights and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is proposed. First, a multi-level risk index system with 4 main indices and 16 sub-level indices is established. Next, methods of Criteria Importance Though Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) and entropy weighting are presented for determining the initial weights of each sub-level index respectively, in which the CRITIC method considers the conflicts between the indices, and the entropy method focuses on the variation of the index values. After that, a combination weighting approach based on relative entropy is used to assign the final combination weight to each index. Then, considering the final combination weights, the TOPSIS method is adopted to assess the risk level of an ESC. Finally, case studies of 4 regional ESCs are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, while the final risk level score of region B’s ESC is the lowest which indicates the best performance in predicting, controlling, and mitigating its internal and external risks.

Keywords

• Energy supply chain
• Risk index
• Risk assessment
• Combination weighting method
• TOPSIS
• Relative entropy