Load characteristics forecasting of Hubei power grid up to year 2030 with the development of electric vehicles

Abstract

The load characteristics of a power grid significantly change with the increase in the number of electric vehicles (EVs). In this study, we present a method for predicting the long-term load characteristics of Hubei Power Grid (A large power grid in China with annual power consumption of 207.1 billion kWh in 2020) up to until year 2030 with the development of EVs. The predicted load characteristics include the annual peak loads and hourly load curves of typical days for different seasons in target years 2025, and 2030. The proposed long-term load forecasting method uses saturated load prediction with grey Verhulst model and Monte Carlo simulation. The future impacts of the charging load of EVs on the grid are discussed in detail.

Keywords

• Long-term load forecasting
• Load characteristic
• Verhulst
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Daily load curves