Climatic Uncertainty in the Mediterranean Basin and Its Possible Relevance to Important Economic Sectors

Abstract

The Mediterranean Basin is among the densest populated regions of the world with forecasts for a further population increase in the coming decades. Agriculture and tourism are two main economic activities of this region. Both activities depend highly on climate and weather conditions. Climate and weather in turn, present a large variability both in space and in time which results in different uncertainty types. Any change in weather and or climate conditions in the coming decades due to climate change may increase this uncertainty. Temporal uncertainty is discussed in detail and different ways of how to exhibit it are presented with examples from various locations in the Mediterranean basin. Forecasted increased uncertainty may in turn increase future challenges for long term planning and managing of agriculture and tourism in that part of the world.

Keywords

• climatic uncertainty
• temporal continuity
• spatial continuity
• inter- and intra-annual variability
• dryness
• DDSLR (dry days since last rain)
• Mediterranean