Landslide susceptibility assessment in Tongguan District Anhui China using information value and certainty factor models

Abstract

Abstract The study of susceptibility to geological hazards geological hazards susceptibility is crucial not only for local risk assessment but also for understanding global patterns in disaster-prone regions. Geological hazards such as landslides and subsidence are a common threat worldwide, affecting millions of people and causing significant economic losses annually. Landslides are a major geological hazard in the Tongling City, Tongguan District, Anhui, China, posing significant risks to local infrastructure and human activity. This study assesses the susceptibility of landslides using seven influencing factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, and distance to faults. Both the information value and certainty factor (CF) models were applied to evaluate the region’s landslide susceptibility, resulting in a classification of the area into five hazard levels. While landslides are the primary focus, ground collapses were also observed, though to a much lesser extent. This study focuses on landslides as the primary geological hazard of interest in Tongguan District. The study found that: (1) landslides in the study area are predominantly concentrated within 300 m of the faults and along the cut slopes adjacent to mountain roads and buildings. This distribution indicates that both the faults and human construction activities are the primary factors contributing to the frequent occurrence of landslides in the region; (2) the proportion of the area classified as high-prone to landslides in Tongguan District, Tongling City is significant, indicating a need for focused mitigation efforts. (3) both the information value and CF models can effectively evaluate the susceptibility to landslides in the region. The area under the curve (AUC) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the models’ performance, with the CF model demonstrating superior evaluation accuracy. The study emphasizes areas in Tongguan District susceptible to landslides, offering critical insights for hazard mitigation strategies and decision-making for prevention, treatment, and emergency response in regions with similar conditions.

Keywords

• Landslide
• Evaluation of susceptibility
• Information value model
• Certainty factor model
• Tongguan District