Method to Forecast the Presidential Election Results Based on Simulation and Machine Learning

Abstract

The forecasting of presidential election results (PERs) is a very complex problem due to the diversity of electoral factors and the uncertainty involved. The use of a hybrid approach composed of techniques such as machine learning (ML) and Simulation in forecasting tasks is promising because the former presents good results but requires a good balance between data quantity and quality, and the latter supplies said requirement; nonetheless, each technique has its limitations, parameters, processes, and application contexts, which should be treated as a whole to improve the results. This study proposes a systematic method to build a model to forecast the PERs with high precision, based on the factors that influence the voter’s preferences and the use of ML and Simulation techniques. The method consists of four phases, uses contextual and synthetic data, and follows a procedure that guarantees high precision in predicting the PER. The method was applied to real cases in Brazil, Uruguay, and Peru, resulting in a predictive model with 100% agreement with the actual first-round results for all cases.

Keywords

• elections forecasting
• machine learning
• simulation
• complex systems
• computational social science