Exponential series approximation of the SIR epidemiological model

Abstract

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IntroductionThe SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model is one of the simplest and most widely used frameworks for understanding epidemic outbreaks.MethodsA second-order dynamical system for the R variable is formulated using an infinite exponential series expansion, and a recursion relation is established between the series coefficients. A numerical approximation scheme for the R variable is also developed.ResultsThe proposed numerical method is compared to a double exponential (DE) nonlinear approximate analytic solution, which reveals two coupled timescales: a relaxation timescale, determined by the ratio of the model’s time constants, and an excitation timescale, dictated by the population size. The DE solution is applied to estimate model parameters for a well-known epidemiological dataset—the boarding school flu outbreak.DiscussionFrom a theoretical standpoint, the primary contribution of this work is the derivation of an infinite exponential, Dirichlet, series for the model variables. Truncating the series yields a finite approximation, known as a Prony series, which can be interpreted as a sequence of coupled exponential relaxation processes, each with a distinct timescale. This apparent complexity can be approximated well by the DE solution, which appears to be of main practical interest.

Keywords

• SIR model
• Lambert W function
• Wright Omega function
• asymptotic analysis
• incomplete gamma function