Satellite Observations Reveal Northward Vegetation Greenness Shifts in the Greater Mekong Subregion over the Past 23 Years

Abstract

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) economic cooperation program is an effective and fruitful regional cooperation initiative for socioeconomic development in Asia; however, the vegetation change trends and directions in the GMS caused by rapid development remain unknown. In particular, there is a current lack of comparative studies on vegetation changes in various countries in the GMS. Based on the MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation coverage and their trends in the GMS from 2000 to 2022 using the Theil–Sen slope estimation, the Mann–Kendall mutation test, and the gravity center migration model. The key findings were as follows: (1) the NDVI in the GMS showed an overall upward fluctuating trend over the past 23 years, with an annual growth rate of 0.11%. The NDVI changes varied slightly between seasons, with the greatest increases recorded in summer and winter. (2) The spatial distribution of NDVI in the GMS varied greatly, with higher NDVI values in the north–central region and lower NDVI values in the south. (3) A total of 66.03% of the GMS area showed increments in vegetation during the studied period, mainly in south–central Myanmar, northeastern Thailand, Vietnam, and China. (4) From 2000 to 2022, the gravity center of vegetation greenness shifted northward in the GMS, especially from 2000 to 2005, indicating that the growth rates of vegetation in the north–central part of the GMS were higher than those in the south. Furthermore, the vegetation coverage in all countries, except Cambodia, increased, with the most pronounced growth recorded in China. Overall, these findings can provide scientific evidence for the GMS to enhance ecological protection and sustainable development.

Keywords

• NDVI
• spatial and temporal patterns
• trend analysis
• gravity center migration model