Frontiers in Energy Research (Sep 2024)
Renewable generation forecasting with DNN-based ensemble method in electricity scheduling
Abstract
The generation of renewable energy encounters numerous obstacles, chiefly the unpredictability of renewable sources. When new energy generation prediction is lower than expected, it needs to be supplemented by other energy sources, which may lead to instability in the power grid if the deviation is large. When the prediction of new energy generation exceeds expectations, it will lead to energy waste. To address these issues, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network-based fusion framework, which can improve the prediction accuracy of new energy and achieve a low-carbon, economical, and stable power grid. Within this structure, feature engineering is conducted initially. Subsequently, a combination of traditional tree algorithms like the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, linear approaches such as the Least Squares Method, and nonlinear neural networks, for instance, Recurrent Neural Networks, are employed for individual model regression purposes. In the final step, both the original time-series data and the outcomes from the individual models are integrated into a deep neural network to derive the ultimate forecasting outcomes. By using our method, the electricity cost has been reduced by 26.5% and the carbon emissions have been decreased by 14.2%. Experiments have been carried out using actual community data, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The findings indicate that the integration of DNN with traditional and modern machine learning techniques can significantly improve the forecasting of renewable energy generation. This advancement contributes to the creation of a more sustainable, economical, and stable power grid.
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