Machine learning‐based statistical downscaling of wind resource maps using multi‐resolution topographical data

Abstract

Abstract The need for high‐resolution wind resource maps is increasing with the increase in the supply and development of wind power. Many physical downscaling models have been developed and applied to make these maps. However, as the existing models require extensive computations and time, statistical models with higher efficiency are being studied. Statistical models such as regression and machine learning models can quickly calculate wind resource maps, but they have a problem of low accuracy. This study proposes a machine learning model with new topography‐derived variables to interpret the physical characteristics of the wind. As the shape of topography, which was unable to be interpreted in previous studies, can be considered with new derived variables, a significant performance improvement was identified. The analysis was conducted using 1 km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) results and ERA5 reanalysis data from South Korea. Two Weibull distribution parameter maps were calculated and used as input and output data. Three collections of derived variables were devised and compared. Therefore, the multi‐resolution topography data showed the highest improvements with approximately 15% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) for both the linear regression and machine learning models. In particular, the land area showed a decrease of 20%. The best proposed models showed an RMSE of 7% and 8% for two Weibull parameters. The results are expected to serve as a reference for continuing research and utilization of statistical models.

Keywords

• downscaling
• machine learning
• statistical model
• topography
• wind map
• wind resource