Using precipitation sensitivity to temperature to adjust projected global runoff

Abstract

Climate change affects the water cycle. Despite the improved accuracy of simulations of historical temperature, precipitation and runoff in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the uncertainty of the future sensitivity of global runoff to temperature remains large. Here, we identify a statistical relationship at the global scale between the sensitivity of precipitation to temperature change (1979–2014) and the sensitivity of runoff to temperature change (2015–2100). We use this relation to constrain future runoff sensitivity estimates. Our statistical relationship only slightly reduces the uncertainty range of future runoff sensitivities (order 10% reduction). However, more importantly, it raises the expected global runoff sensitivity to background global warming by 36%–104% compared to estimates taken directly from the CMIP6 model ensemble. The constrained sensitivities also indicate a shift towards globally more wet conditions and less dry conditions.

Keywords

• CMIP6
• CMIP5
• land surface runoff
• precipitation
• temperature
• climate extremes