EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND ASSOCIATED RISK OF FAILURE IN HYDRAULIC PROJECTS IN THE STATE OF MATO GROSSO DO SUL, BRAZIL

Abstract

It is necessary to know the extreme occurrences of precipitation in a region for satisfactory design of infrastructure projects. Tropical climate regions are characterized for their heavy rainfall events during the summer, and in recent years, as a result of climate change, such events are becoming recurrent. A theoretical probability distribution model is typically used to extrapolate extreme events for high return periods. In this study, it was verified whether probability distribution models are efficient for an estimation of extreme precipitation events for the normative recommended return period. Five cities in Mato Grosso do Sul State, located the midwest region of Brazil, that have been affected by disasters caused by heavy rainfall were adopted as a case study. The results illustrate that the recommendations of the return periods used for the design of hydraulic control structures are insufficient to avoid damage caused by precipitation events, thus lending a high breakdown risk to the structures.

Keywords

• Precipitação máxima
• Período de retorno
• Análise probabilística
• Análise de risco
• Vida útil da estrutura
• Modelo de distribuição probabilística