Designing and Explaining a Redundancy Resource and Buffer allocation Model for Project Reliability Improvement with Time and Cost Uncertainty (The Case of Oil and Gas Industry Projects)

Abstract

Objective: Achieving the time and cost objectives of projects in the real world is difficult because of unforeseen and uncertain issues. Time and cost estimates at the beginning of the project are usually optimistic and do not take into account the uncertainties that lead to deviations from the objectives. The purpose of this study is to provide a combined method of allocating redundancy resource and buffer to improve the achievement of time and cost objectives (project reliability).Methods: In this method, by allocating a precautionary time reserve at the end of each activity and the end of the project and allocating redundancy resource, the reliability of the project is improved so that time and cost are not sacrificed and the most desirable cost and time for the project will be achieved. For this purpose, the mathematical model of optimal allocation of buffer and redundancy resource to improve time and cost stability has been presented and its application in one of the real projects of the country's oil and gas industry has been studied and validated.Results: The research findings indicate a 37 percent improvement in time reliability and a 28 percent improvement in project cost reliability using the proposed method.Conclusion: The results of the study indicate an improvement in the attention span in achieving the time and cost objectives of the project using the proposed method and considering the real conditions of projects, including uncertainties and special conditions such as sanctions.

Keywords

• project reliability
• uncertainty
• redundancy resource
• buffer