Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack

Abstract

In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated anthrax attack. The method is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet.

Keywords

• Bioterrorism
• Bayesian Analysis
• Bayesian Forecast
• surveillance
• anthrax
• perspective