Robust generation expansion planning considering high penetration renewable energies uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract The proper optimal generation expansion planning (GEP) should meet the reliability criteria requirements over a planning horizon under the presence of uncertainties. The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources (RES) introduces an enormous uncertainties impact within the planning model. A simulation model for RES uncertainty is developed using the capacity factor (CF) of the RES historical data. The RES simulation model is handled via the probability density function (PDF). The uncertainty parameter of different RES is described as a flexible polyhedral uncertainty set and incorporated within the proposed GEP model. The influence of different uncertainty scenarios for each RES uncertainty on the GEP model can be analyzed separately. The RES uncertainty scenarios are predefined and incorporated within the proposed GEP model through a proposed parameter named as a confidence level. The proposed confidence level parameter is beneficial to the power system planner to control the degree of robustness. Different GEP results are presented for various RES uncertainty scenarios. Three methods are proposed as appropriate solutions to deal with the RES uncertainty impact. The most economical method among the three proposed methods is determined by developing an objective function tailored to achieve the optimality of the economic factor.

Keywords

• energy storage system
• generation expansion planning
• renewable energy uncertainty
• reserve margin
• robust optimization