Qualitative modelling macroeconomics indicators for prediction of progress branch

Abstract

A qualitative modelling philosophy has been developed in an effort to produce a general and reasonably unified common sense approach to the modelling of unique, complex and unsteady state systems. Economics, Ecology, Sociology and Politics are sciences, which study such systems. An integration of sub models from those sciences into supermodels is inevitable if realistic decision making tasks are analysed. Therefore conventional formal tools (e.g. statistics) cannot be correctly applied because of lack of information. Qualitative variables are quantified using three values only – positive (increasing), zero (constant) and negative (decreasing). Knowledge items of qualitative nature (e.g. if productivity goes up then profit does not decrease) are often the only available information. The classical quantitative tools cannot deal with such information items. However, qualitative models can absorb shallow qualitative knowledge and generate all possible scenarios i.e. qualitative solutions. The complete list of scenarios guarantees that any analysis (decision making) based on it does not ignore any promising solution. The case study of oil related macro economical risks is presented in details (15 variables e.g. Inflation, Corruption, 14 qualitative relations among the variables). No a priory know­ledge of qualitative analysis is required.

Keywords

• modelling
• qualitative analysing
• prediction
• scenario
• macroeconomics indicators