Product Demand Prediction with Spatial Graph Neural Networks

Abstract

In the rapidly evolving online marketplace, accurately predicting the demand for pre-owned items presents a significant challenge for sellers, impacting pricing strategies, product presentation, and marketing investments. Traditional demand prediction methods, while foundational, often fall short in addressing the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of e-commerce data, which encompasses textual descriptions, visual elements, geographic contexts, and temporal dynamics. This paper introduces a novel approach utilizing the Graph Neural Network (GNN) to enhance demand prediction accuracy by leveraging the spatial relationships inherent in online sales data, named SGNN. Drawing from the rich dataset provided in the fourth Kaggle competition, we construct a spatially aware graph representation of the marketplace, integrating advanced attention mechanisms to refine predictive accuracy. Our methodology defines the product demand prediction problem as a regression task on an attributed graph, capturing both local and global spatial dependencies that are fundamental to accurate predicting. Through attention-aware message propagation and node-level demand prediction, our model effectively addresses the multifaceted challenges of e-commerce demand prediction, demonstrating superior performance over traditional statistical methods, machine learning techniques, and even deep learning models. The experimental findings validate the effectiveness of our GNN-based approach, offering actionable insights for sellers navigating the complexities of the online marketplace. This research not only contributes to the academic discourse on e-commerce demand prediction but also provides a scalable and adaptable framework for future applications, paving the way for more informed and effective online sales strategies.

Keywords

• demand prediction
• Graph Neural Network
• spatial information