Conservation status and prediction analysis of potential distribution of National Key Protected Wild Plants

Abstract

Wild plants are an important part of the natural ecological system, and China is one of the countries with the most abundant wild plant species. It is of great significance to study the distribution characteristics, protection status and potential distribution areas of National Key Protected Wild Plants for supporting and formulating biodiversity conservation strategies. Based on 1 032 species (belonging to 315 genera, 129 families) of National Key Protected Wild Plants, this study used the top 5% richness algorithm to identify hotspots, and superimposed with nature reserves to evaluate the conservation effectiveness and determine conservation gaps of current nature reserves. Furthermore, this study used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential distribution and range shifts of National Key Protected Wild Plants. The results were as follows: (1) The areas with the highest species richness of the National Key Protected Wild Plants mainly confined to the south and southwest of China, especially in central Sichuan, southern and southeastern Yunnan, northern Guangxi, northern Guangdong and Hainan. (2) The conservation effectiveness of hotspot grids showed that 171 (85.50%) hotspot grids were efficient protection (including 80.50% of total species), and 29 hotspot grids (14.50%) were not effectively protected (including 51.20% of total species). (3) By comparing the potential distribution area of National Key Protected Wild Plants under current and future climate scenarios, it is found that potential distribution area would expand to southeastern of Xizang, southwestern Guangxi, southern Guangdong, and southern Fujian in the future, while those around Sichuan Basin, southern Yunnan and southern Guizhou would shrink. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the dynamic monitoring of biodiversity and pay continuous attention to the impact of climate change on National Key Protected Wild Plants in the region. Based on the analysis results of hotspot grids, conservation effectiveness and potential distribution areas identified in this study, strong data support and reference can be provided for the identification of diversity priority protected areas for National Key Protected Wild Plants and the formulation of conservation policies.

Keywords

• distribution pattern
• hotspots
• conservation effectiveness
• gap analysis
• potential distribution area
• climate change