Results in Physics (Jan 2021)
Prediction on the number of confirmed Covid-19 with the FUDAN-CCDC mathematical model and its epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and prevention and treatment effects
Abstract
This study was to explore the development trend and clinical manifestations of COVID-19 better. The number of confirmed novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) was predicted based on the FUDAN-CCDC mathematical model (which was a new model namely based on the novel time delay dynamic model and the statistical data from Chinese Center for Disease Control (CCDC)). The epidemiology and clinical manifestations of COVID-19 were studied based on its clinical classification, and the prevention and treatment effects of antibacterial drugs on the COVID-19 were explored. Firstly, a FUDAN-CCDC mathematical model was established to predict the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients. Secondly, 500 COVID-19 patients with clear epidemiological history and confirmed by nucleic acid testing who were admitted to our Hospital from February 1, 2020 to May 1, 2020 were taken as research objects in this study. They were divided into 4 categories: mild cases, moderate cases, severe cases, and critical cases based on the standards given by the World Health Organization (WHO). The general data characteristics, epidemiological characteristics, clinical manifestations characteristics, laboratory indicator characteristics, and prevention and treatment effects of patients with COVID-19 were analyzed. The FUDAN-CCDC model predicted that the peak time of cumulative confirmed cases in Wuhan was from February 1 to February 5, the peak of cumulative confirmed cases was around 60,000, and the peak time of newly confirmed cases was from February 8 to February 11. Most of the patients with COVID-19 in critical cases were older, with an average age of 65.31 ± 8.26 years old; it was mainly imported case (94 cases, 18.8%) at the beginning, and was mainly local cases (406 cases, 81.2%) later. The initial symptoms were fever (447 cases, 89.4%) and cough (304 cases, 60.8%), and the patients in severe and critical cases were often accompanied by respiratory failure and other late symptoms. There were differences in laboratory tests, patients in critical cases had increased procalcitonin (PCT) and less lymphocytes (LYM). The treatment of COVID-19 was mainly moxifloxacin tablets or injections and cefoperazone sodium sulbactam sodium for injection, with significant efficacy, but the cure rate of patients in severe and critical cases was low, which was 83.1% and 68.4% respectively. FUDAN-CCDC could be applied for prediction of the COVID-19 trend. COVID-19 patients with different clinical classifications were different in clinical symptoms, laboratory tests and treatment options, and the cure rate of patients in severe and critical cases was low. This article was conductive to improving the prevention and treatment of COVID-19, so as to provide a theoretical reference.
