Evaluation of development potential of cropland in Central Asia

Abstract

With population growth and rapid urbanization, agricultural land has become a relatively scarce resource. Given the vast land area in Central Asia, exploring the potential of agricultural land development in Central Asia is a realistic guide to the rational use of land and the alleviation of strained human-land relations and food shortage problems. In this study, Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) were used to construct a cropland development potential evaluation system in Central Asia. The results showed that: (1) The development of current cropland basically adapts to local natural conditions in Central Asia. Suitable irrigated cropland is mainly located in areas with low elevation and close to water sources such as rivers and canals. Suitable rain-fed cropland is mainly located in the areas with flat terrain and sufficient rainfall. (2) The land resources of Central Asia still have a large potential for development: 1,008,000 km2 for the irrigated cropland and 217,124 km2 for the rain-fed cropland, mainly concentrated in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The final evaluation results on a province-level scale presented in this study provide a direct and effective reference for future cropland development in Central Asian countries.

Keywords

• Central Asia
• Development potential of cropland
• Irrigated cropland
• Rain-fed cropland
• Current cropland evaluation