Cancer Management and Research (Mar 2022)

Development and Multicentre Validation of the Modena Score to Predict Survival in Advanced Biliary Cancers Undergoing Second-Line Chemotherapy

  • Salati M,
  • Marcheselli L,
  • Messina C,
  • Merz V,
  • Messina M,
  • Carotenuto P,
  • Caputo F,
  • Gelsomino F,
  • Spallanzani A,
  • Reggaiani Bonetti L,
  • Caramaschi S,
  • Luppi G,
  • Dominici M,
  • Ghidini M

Journal volume & issue
Vol. Volume 14
pp. 983 – 993

Abstract

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Massimiliano Salati,1,2 Luigi Marcheselli,1 Carlo Messina,3 Valeria Merz,3,4 Marco Messina,5 Pietro Carotenuto,6 Francesco Caputo,1 Fabio Gelsomino,1 Andrea Spallanzani,1 Luca Reggiani Bonetti,7 Stefania Caramaschi,7 Gabriele Luppi,1 Massimo Dominici,1 Michele Ghidini8 1Division of Oncology, Department of Oncology and Hematology, University Hospital of Modena, Modena, Italy; 2PhD Program Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; 3Department of Medical Oncology, Santa Chiara Hospital, Trento, Italy; 4Digestive Molecular Clinical Oncology Research Unit, University of Verona, Verona, Italy; 5Oncology Unit, Fondazione San Raffaele-Giglio, Cefalu’, Palermo, Italy; 6Telethon Institute of Genetics and Medicine, Pozzuoli, 80078, Napoli, Italy; 7Pathology Section, University Hospital of Modena, Modena, Italy; 8Medical Oncology Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, ItalyCorrespondence: Massimiliano Salati, PhD Program Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University Hospital of Modena, Modena Cancer Centre, via del Pozzo 71, Modena, 41125, Italy, Tel +39/0594223808, Fax +39/0594222647, Email [email protected]: The role of second-line chemotherapy in advanced biliary cancers (ABCs) has only recently been established in phase III randomized trial and the optimal selection of patients most likely to benefit from it remains challenging.Methods: A cohort of 98 ABC treated second-line chemotherapy was used as a developmental dataset to identify covariates independently associated with overall survival (OS). Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to investigate the association between variables and OS and those retaining statistically significance were combined in a multiplexed score.Results: The following pretreatment variables were independently associated with OS: ECOG PS > 0, peritoneal disease, LDH > 430 UI/L, albumin 100 UI/L, sodium < 140 mEq/L, absolute lymphocyte count < 1000/mmc, and PFS to first-line < 6 months. Based on these results, a scoring system was developed that identified three subgroups with statistically different OS: low-risk (mOS 18 months), intermediate-risk (mOS 9.4 months) and high-risk (mOS 2.9 months) (p < 0.001). The prognostic model was both internally and externally validated in a multicentre cohort of 120 ABCs.Conclusion: The Modena score is a multiplexed scoring system capable of accurately risk-stratified ABCs treated with second-line chemotherapy. Based on its reproducibility, usability and generalizability, it has the potential for assisting therapeutic decision-making in the clinic and risk-stratification in future trials.Graphical Abstract: Keywords: biliary tract cancer, chemotherapy, second-line, prognostic score, survival

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