DETERMINANTS OF AGRO–FOOD PRICE CHANGES IN SLOVENIA DEJAVNIKI SPREMINJANJA AGROŽIVILSKIH CEN V SLOVENIJI

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of the current economic developments, the Euro adoption, and input prices on the consumer food prices. The focus of the analysis is on the consumer food price developments during the Slovenian adjustments towards the European Union membership, the Euro adoption by the followed increased in consumer prices, and the current economic and financial conditions. The empirical analysis on the determinants of the consumer food prices is based on the monthly statistical data, which were obtained from the Statistical Office of Republic of Slovenia. We use three statistical methods of the analyses on the time-series data: principal component analysis, regression analysis, and linear trend analysis. We found that the Euro adoption had only short-term impact on the consumer food prices. The rise in the consumer food prices has been determined by the intermediary costs and the agricultural producers` prices. Prispevek analizira vpliv ekonomsko-finančnih gibanj, uvedbe evra in cene inputov na cene hrane in brezalkoholnih pijač (agroživilske cene). Članek se osredotoča na agroživilske cene v času slovenskega pristopa k Evropski uniji, sprejetjem evra, povečanih cen življenjskih potrebščin in trenutne gospodarske in finančne krize. Empirična analiza dejavnikov agroživilskih cen temelji na mesečnih statističnih podatkih, ki so bili pridobljeni iz Statističnega urada Republike Slovenije. Uporabljene so tri statistične metode analize časovnih serij podatkov: metoda glavnih komponent, regresijska analiza in analiza linearnega trenda. Ugotovili smo, da se agroživilske cene na srednji rok niso povečale z uvedbo evra. Agroživilske cene pa imajo statistično značilno povezanost s stroški in s cenami pridelkov pri pridelovalcih.

Keywords

• živilska veriga
• cene hrane
• recesija
• evro
• slovenija