Assimilation of 3D polarimetric microphysical retrievals in a convective-scale NWP system

Abstract

This study assimilates for the first time polarimetric C-band radar observations from the German meteorological service (DWD) into DWD's convective-scale model ICON-D2 using DWD's ensemble-based KENDA assimilation framework. We compare the assimilation of conventional observations (CNV) with the additional assimilation of radar reflectivity Z (CNV + Z), with the additional assimilation of liquid or ice water content (LWC or IWC) estimates below or above the melting layer instead of Z where available (CNV + LWC/Z or CNV + IWC/Z respectively). Hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are evaluated for two stratiform and one convective rainfall events in the summers of 2017 and 2021. With optimized data assimilation settings (e.g., observation errors), the assimilation of LWC mostly improves first-guess QPF compared with the assimilation of Z alone (CNV + Z), whereas the assimilation of IWC does not, especially for convective cases, probably because of the lower quality of the IWC retrieval in these situations. Improvements are, however, notable for stratiform rainfall in 2021, for which the IWC estimator profits from better specific differential phase estimates owing to a higher radial radar resolution than the other cases. The assimilation of all radar data sets together (CNV + LWC + IWC + Z) yields the best first guesses. All assimilation configurations with radar information consistently improve deterministic 9 h QPF compared with the assimilation of only conventional data (CNV). Forecasts based on the assimilation of LWC and IWC retrievals on average slightly improve Fraction Skill Score (FSS) and Frequency Bias (FBI) compared with the assimilation of Z alone (CNV + Z), especially when LWC is assimilated for the 2017 convective case and when IWC is assimilated for the high-resolution 2021 stratiform case. However, IWC assimilation again degrades forecast FSS for the convective cases. Forecasts initiated using all radar data sets together (CNV + LWC + IWC + Z) yield the best FSS. The development of IWC retrievals that are more adequate for convection constitutes one next step to further improving the exploitation of ice microphysical retrievals for radar data assimilation.