جغرافیا و آمایش شهری منطقهای (Dec 2020)
The Impact Of Climate Changes On Tourism In Protected Areas (Case Study: Alvand No-Hunting Area)
Abstract
Tourism in protected areas is very sensitive to climate changes, and any change will reduce the duration and quality of tourism spaces. In this study, the impact of climatic parameters in Alvand no-hunting area was considered as an important principle in choosing a tourist destination and the relationship between climate change and tourists. While using the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), in order to determine the appropriate days for the presence of tourists, to determine the drought threshold of the index (SPI), in examining the trend of climate change on the number of tourists during the years (1975-2018). The results of the TCI index indicate the ideal situation (June and September), the excellent situation (May, July, August, October), the very good situation (April), the acceptable situation (November, December, February, February, March) and the state of border (January) in the area. The amount of t statistic related to the number of tourists indicates the positive trend of tourist statistics in this area (the best months are June and September). The results show that the trend of changes in rainfall and drought index has negative values, which indicates a decrease in rainfall and an increase in drought in the area. In addition, the significant increase in air temperature with a statistical value of t = 2.82 at the level of 0.05 means that the air temperature has been increasing and has caused a decrease in the number of tourists in recent years. The highest amount of t statistic is allocated to wind speed, which means that the trend of positive wind speed changes is % 95 reliable and means high wind speed fluctuations. Rising temperatures, lack of snow cover in the region and heat waves in the summer all suggest that in the future, changes in climate will damage the natural structure and ultimately reduce the comfort index, especially in hot seasons. Summer (July and August) is for tourists and tourism activities.
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