A review of ecosystems services trade-offs, synergies and scenarios modelling for policy development support

Abstract

Information about the effect of land management on ecosystem services is essential to make balanced decisions, develop sustainable political strategies, and determine future scenarios. Previous methods and tools have been developed to analyze the effects of land use/land cover on ecosystem services. Nevertheless, being able to model the uncertainties, complexities, interconnections, and different interactions between multiple drivers of change in future scenario analysis are still a challenge in ecosystem service research. Modelling ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies and evaluating their use in scenario analysis are important issues that require more understanding. Therefore, this study explores the link and relationships among scenarios, models, and ecosystem services that support the decision-making processes. Based on electronic database publications, a conceptual framework illustrating the key components of this approach is presented. Further implications in terms of innovative tools that aim to identify pathways towards sustainable and balanced land use are also presented. It was concluded that spatial modelling of ecosystem services relationships associated with scenario building allows decision makers to better understand the complex interactions that occur in social-ecological systems. This approach brings important elements to set decisions, strategies, regulations, and policies for holistic land-use planning and management at different scales, notably in Brazil, a large and environmentally diversified country.

Keywords

• ecosystem services modeling
• land use management
• future scenarios
• decision making
• environmental policy