Econometric analysis of unemployment and its impact on the economic growth of the Ural Federal District

Abstract

Introduction. Labour market is one of the key areas ensuring the growth of the national economy. However, unique geographical and social economic features of various federal districts of the Russian Federation generate regions’ unequal contribution to the labour market development. This demands analysis of labour market processes and identification of key factors for labour market growth. The purpose of this article is to analyze unemployment in the Ural Federal District of the Russian Federation and reveal the key factors that have a significant impact on employment dynamics. Materials and Methods. The paper refers to the official information database of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. The authors developed a set of econometric models determined by correlation and regression analysis methods. Results. The study shows that the regional unemployment rate is defined by various key indicators such as wages, effective demand, and inflation. Two hypotheses were worded to support the dominant factors for the GRP growth in the Ural Federal District. To justify these hypotheses, the authors referred to a set of six relevant econometric models which give distinctive results and define the degree the analyzed indicators impact GRP and economic growth of some regions in the Ural Federal District. Conclusions. Higher wages, curbing inflation and stimulated consumer demand by higher actual incomes of population are the most efficient measures to reduce unemployment, and stimulate economic growth of the Ural Federal District. These findings should be taken into account in developing social economic projects and programmes for the Ural Federal District.