Response of South American Terrestrial Ecosystems to Future Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract

Global warming in the first half of the 21st century is likely to have profound influences on South American vegetation and climate. Although coupled atmosphere-biosphere models have been widely used to forecast future vegetation patterns under various scenarios of global warming, they have not been used to assess the potentially critical role of variations in sea surface temperature (SST) in modifying the climate-vegetation interactions. Here, we use monthly output of a 100-year coupled model run to investigate the relationship between SST, precipitation, and productivity of vegetation. Specifically, we assess statistical correlations between SST variability and vegetation in six different South America regions: Northern South America, Western Amazonia, Eastern Amazonia, Northeast Brazil, Central Brazil, and Patagonia. Our model robustly simulates changes in mean precipitation, net primary production (NPP), upper canopy leaf area index (LAI), and lower canopy LAI under warming and nonwarming scenarios. Most significantly, we demonstrate that spatial-temporal variability in SST exerts a strong influence over the vegetation dynamics in all six South American regions.