Volatility Transmission of Barley World Price to the Domestic Market of Iran and the Role of Iran Mercantile Exchange; an Application of BEKK Model

Abstract

Barley is one of the main crops after wheat and rice. The importance of this product increases because it is an essential input in the livestock and poultry industries. The prices of input, which used in the livestock and poultry industries, faced fluctuations in recent years. Thus, in this study, the price fluctuation of barley in the Iran Mercantile Exchange, Iran domestic free market and World Market compared by applying the GARCH model. This model applied to monthly prices of barley from March 2009 to February 2017. Also, the volatility and shock transmission of barley price between these three markets analyzed by the BEKK model. The results showed that the price fluctuations of the domestic market are more than the global market. In addition, the shocks and volatilities of the world and Iran free market transmitted to the Iran Mercantile Exchange. Thus, the use of new financial instruments in the domestic free market is necessary.

Keywords

• barley
• bekk.
• fluctuation
• garch