Spatio-temporal pattern and risk factors of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Zhejiang, China, from 2005 to 2022 using R-INLA

Yifan Tang; Yifan Chen; Jinglei Zheng; Wei Cheng; Yurong Jing; Yushu Zhang; Chengliang Chai; Chengxiu Ling; Ying Wang

doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101038

One Health (Jun 2025)

Spatio-temporal pattern and risk factors of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Zhejiang, China, from 2005 to 2022 using R-INLA

Yifan Tang,
Yifan Chen,
Jinglei Zheng,
Wei Cheng,
Yurong Jing,
Yushu Zhang,
Chengliang Chai,
Chengxiu Ling,
Ying Wang

Affiliations

Yifan Tang: Wisdom Lake Academy of Pharmacy, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou 215123, China; School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L693BX, UK
Yifan Chen: School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Jinglei Zheng: Department of AIDS/STDs Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China
Wei Cheng: Department of AIDS/STDs Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China
Yurong Jing: School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Yushu Zhang: School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Chengliang Chai: Department of AIDS/STDs Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China; Corresponding authors.
Chengxiu Ling: Wisdom Lake Academy of Pharmacy, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou 215123, China; Corresponding authors.
Ying Wang: School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China; Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China; Correspondence to: Y. Wang, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101038
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 20
p. 101038

Abstract

Read online

Background: The number of reported HIV/AIDS cases in the Zhejiang province, China, has increased drastically. However, spatial disparity and temporal trends in HIV/AIDS risk at the fine level remain unclear. We analyzed HIV/AIDS prevalence in Zhejiang, China to develop targeted HIV/AIDS prevention strategies and health resources. Methods: This study included 56,699 HIV/AIDS patients reported in the Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2022. Data were obtained from the Zhejiang province Database of the National HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted using GeoDa 1.22, and factors influencing HIV/AIDS cases were identified through a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model with the fast-computing R-INLA approach. Results: Cases decreased from coastal to inland areas, while the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and relative risk (RR) showed an overall increase. Key factors influencing RR included average diagnosed age (ADA), healthcare technical personnel per thousand people (HTP), male proportion (MP), GDP per capita (GDP), population density (PD), per capita disposable income (DPI), teachers per thousand people (TTP). The RR increased by 1.011, 0.989, 1.010, 0.997, 0.932, 0.990, and 0.830 per unit increase in ADA, HTP, MP, GDP, PD, DPI, and TTP, respectively. TTP was negatively associated with RR in high-prevalence regions but positively associated in low-prevalence regions. DPI showed a negative association in most regions but was not significant in upper-middle-prevalence areas. Conclusion: HIV/AIDS risk varies significantly across the Zhejiang province, China. High-prevalence regions require targeted health education and rapid testing, while low-prevalence areas need improved healthcare infrastructure.

Published in One Health

ISSN: 2352-7714 (Online)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: Netherlands
LCC subjects: Medicine: Medicine (General)
Website: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/one-health

About the journal

Abstract

Keywords