Structural change to the persistence of the urban heat island

Abstract

The term urban heat island (UHI) is used to describe the effect of urban temperatures rising several degrees above concurrent temperatures in surrounding suburban or rural areas. This is typically assessed through records of daily extreme temperatures. However, on a hot day the temperature can exceed an extreme threshold for several consecutive hours, forming a cluster of extremes. We use the statistical theory of extreme values combined with a model that allows structural breaks to show that there has been a significant upward shift in the length of clusters in New York City. No such shift is found at a Connecticut location where the usual UHI assessment indicates that the two sites are comparable. Our study is the first to highlight this danger of the UHI. Prolonged exposure to extreme temperatures has deleterious effects on both health and the environment.

Keywords

• urbanization
• extreme temperature
• clustering