Predicted preference conjoint analysis.

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new method of eliciting market research information. Instead of asking respondents for their personal choices and preferences, we ask respondents to predict the choices of other respondents to the survey. Such predictions tap respondents' knowledge of peers, whether based on direct social contacts or on more general cultural information. The effectiveness of this approach has already been demonstrated in the context of political polling. Here we extend it to market research, specifically, to conjoint analysis. An advantage of the new approach is that it can elicit reliable responses in situations where people are not comfortable with disclosing their true preferences, but may be willing to give information about people around them. A theoretical argument demonstrates that predictions should yield utility estimates that are more accurate. These theoretical results are confirmed in four online experiments.