Bayesian Survival Analysis Model for Girth Weld Failure Prediction

Abstract

The formation and development of a dataset for pipeline systems have affected the management and decision-making of pipeline operators. The dataset, combined with a proposed theoretical analysis method, can provide significant improvement for the safe and economic operation of pipelines. On the basis of the pipeline data and its essential impact on pipeline risk assessment, the authors propose for the first time the Staged Bayesian failure model for girth welds of a pipeline, using the “tree-type” accident theory and Bayesian survival analysis method. This model of girth welds is consistent with the distribution of Kaplan–Meier functions and can predict the influence of different factors on the survival probability of girth welds. These new research results can lay the technical foundation for the failure analysis of pipeline girth welds.

Keywords

• survival analysis, pipeline, girth weld, prediction