Evaluation of MUF uncertainty based on GUM method for benchmark bulk handling facility

Abstract

The Republic of Korea is performing independent national inspections under the IAEA's State System of Accounting for and Control (SSAC), and developing an evaluation methodology for the material unaccounted for (MUF) to reinforce capabilities with the purpose of assessment for the accounting system of the facility handling bulk nuclear materials. In relation to this, a new approach for MUF evaluation was proposed in this study based on the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM). Both the conventional MUF evaluation method and the GUM method were applied to a hypothetical list of inventory items including material balance. Considering the ease of uncertainty propagation according to the GUM, it was assumed that independent uncertainty factors correspond to random factors, while correlated uncertainty factors correspond to systematic factors. The total MUF uncertainties were similar for both methods; however, it was verified that some uncertainties were affected by the measurement procedure in the GUM method. Furthermore, the GUM method was found to be more conducive to conducting a factor analysis for the MUF uncertainty. It was therefore concluded that application of the GUM approach could be beneficial in cases of national safeguard inspections where factor analysis is required for MUF assessment.

Keywords

• Nuclear safeguards
• Material unaccounted for evaluation
• National inspection
• Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement
• Benchmark case evaluation